SPECIAL EDITION: Reviewing the NL West with Ryan J. Van Dever
Edition #69
HEADLINES:
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WHY IS JACKSON HOLLIDAY STARTING IN THE MINORS?
WILL THERE EVER BE A COMPETITIVE ALL STAR GAME IN THE NBA?
KEEP UP TO DATE WITH MARCH MADNESS
INTRO:
Hiya! It’s my birthday! And, I wanna make a list of a few things.
I was born on the same date as Tom Glavine, Dutch Leonard, Travis Fryman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Lee Mazzilli, Dan Wilson, Mike Zunino, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Emmanuel Moseley, Mike White, Elton Johnson, and T.J. Mcconnell. I’m only naming a few.
Baseball is my favorite sport, so in return, instead of doing an article about birthdays and sports correlations, I’m going to do something I love. Analyzing. But, not just analyzing anything. I’m analyzing the NL West, the division I watch the most, the divisional I rise and fall for, but most importantly, the division that contains my favorite team, the Dodgers (although, to provide an unbiased view, I didn’t write much about them).
Alright! Let’s actually get started.
Do you want to win a free fantasy baseball cheat sheet? All you have to do is complete this survey.
My friends have been playing a lot of Spring Training fantasy baseball. I had no clue how to play these fantasy games, so when I saw that Sports Square had a cheat sheet, I jumped on it right away. When we picked our teams, they were so baffled by my picks. They teased me day in and out. At the end of the “season”, I found out I had won! $50 all for me! You have to use this cheat sheet. If I can win in Spring Training with this, then you’ll definitely be able to win the “real” fantasy baseball.
-Verlin Crandall
INTRO INTRO:
The NL West is not one of the most interesting divisions in baseball.
It is the most interesting division.
Before this offseason, you would think about the NL West as the Dodgers and to some extent the Giants. Now? It’s the Dodgers and maybe, maybe, the Diamondbacks. Why do I say that? The additions of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernandez, I mean seriously? That’s crazy!
You know what else is crazy? This post kicks off Sports Square collab week and I have Ryan J. Van Dever who writes Hot Zone Sports along with me today to talk about the NL West. We’re going to preview every team and make predictions. Well? Without further ado, let’s get this thing started.
NL West Preview and Predictions
Smayan:
I can’t help stressing how good this division is. Do you know what kind of players are here? Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Ezequiel Tovar, Corbin Carroll, Matt Chapman, Dylan Cease, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado. These are just some of the amazing people in this division.
But, I can’t stop noticing how in the list of 11 I gave. 5 of them were from the Los Angeles Dodgers (Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman). So what the hell is this team Ryan? I’ll put my view right after.
Ryan:
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won at least 100 games in each of the past four seasons. The team is stacked beyond belief, and as you may have heard, this winter they’ve been a bit busy to say the least..
So, yeah, it’s World Series or bust on an annual basis for this team and every year but the COVID one has been a bust, and this year is no different.
Look, this team is ridiculously talented. They could win 110 games, they could win 100, but they probably won’t win fewer than 95 games. Recent history tells us they’ll at least get to triple digit wins. The floor for this club is very high. I don’t think the ceiling is quite as high as some may make it out to be with all the pitching injuries, but they’ll probably score six runs per game to make up for it.
How healthy the Dodgers are as the season winds down could play a big role in what they do in the postseason. Last year they just didn’t have many healthy arms for that kind of run. Between Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, and Dustin May their pitching staff is going to start off the season a little thin. Emmett Sheehan has been dealing with shoulder discomfort and will start the season on the IL. Tony Gonsolin is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign because of having Tommy John surgery late last year. That’s an entire rotation’s worth of pretty good pitchers that are not currently available. So yes there are questions surrounding this team, as loaded as it is.
Smayan:
One thing I really want to think about here is the $700 million dollars man. Is he going to be the same after TJ Surgery (Tommy John, UCL)? The Dodgers went ahead and gave him a humongous check. They expect him to be ready. To be the dominant pitcher he was before. But, can he? Can he come back?
Well, yes but no. More like, my yes is kinda like a luck thing. Most likely, it would be a no.
Look, this is his second time getting TJ Surgery. While there are people like Nathan Eovaldi and Daniel Hudson who have had these and have been successful, look at Josh Johnson, Brandon Beachy, or Brian Wilson. Their career was quickly over.
But, the money didn’t come into play at that time. Never. It does here, even if he earns only 2 million dollars a year. Why? He’s owed like 680 million dollars after his playing contract expires. 68 million dollars a year! Crazy!
Here are their key additions and losses.
Key additions:: DH Shohei Ohtani, RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP Tyler Glasnow, OF Teoscar Hernández, LHP James Paxton, INF/OF Kiké Hernández, INF Andre Lipcius.
Key losses: LHP Julio Urías, RHP Lance Lynn, DH J.D. Martinez, OF David Peralta, RHP Ryan Pepiot, LHP Caleb Ferguson, RHP Yency Almonte, LHP Victor González, RHP Wander Suero, INF Michael Busch, OF Jonny DeLuca, LHP Bryan Hudson.
Still more losses than addition, but the amount of skill on the side of the additions will suffice for all. Alright. Let’s look at the next team. The Arizona Diamondbacks. Ryan. Can Corbin Caroll do the same/even better than last year?
Ryan:
In 2023, Corbin Carroll had a rookie season for the books, becoming the first Arizona Diamondbacks player to ever receive the Rookie of the Year award. The young outfielder stepped onto the field for the ‘23 season, carrying the weight of high expectations. He had more advantages than just being a former first-round pick who made a strong impression in his first taste of Big League action in 2022.
Last year, Carroll showcased an impressive batting average of .285, an on-base percentage of .362, and a slugging percentage of .506 through 645 plate appearances. His speed and power combination was unmatched, making him a force to be reckoned with. His remarkable performance included 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases, a feat never before accomplished by a rookie in a single season.
I believe Carroll will maintain a strong batting average and display excellent plate discipline, resulting in a significantly high on-base percentage. However, there is some uncertainty surrounding the extent of the power. While Carroll’s season started off strong, it gradually declined during the second half of the season. Throughout the D-Backs’ last 81 games of the season, Carroll maintained a batting average of .278, an on-base percentage of .354, and a slugging percentage of .448. Carroll, who is just 22 years old, would not dismiss the idea of adjusting his plate approach to generate more power.
Here are the expectations I am setting for myself with Carroll’s season at the plate: anticipating a more aggressive approach, improved pitch recognition, and the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. By the end of the year, he will have a batting average of .277, an on-base percentage of .355, and a slugging percentage of .473. It’s unlikely that he’ll reach the 50+ stolen bases mark again, but I still anticipate him getting at least 35. His speed continues to be a major advantage whenever he steps onto the diamond. Additionally, I predict that he will have a total of 21 home runs under his belt. Overall, Carroll’s numbers will closely resemble his 2023 rookie season, with a slight decrease in power. Specifically, he is projected to hit four fewer home runs and have an isolated slugging percentage that is 25 points lower.
Smayan:
Here are the moves they made.
Pretty rad. In fact, most sites rank the Arizona Diamondbacks as the team that made the 3rd best offseason moves.
Alright. My turn, let me say a few things about the San Diego Padres or the San Diego Dads. Do you think it is possible that the Padres can be good? The only reason I put this question out is because they defeated the billion-dollar money evaders, the Los Angeles Dodgers! You can argue as much as you want that Yamamoto didn’t have his command or that the team was more focused on Ohtani’s issue, but the only thing that matters is the W.
Look, this team is talented. They have a roster that consists of Yuki Matsui, Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, and don’t ever forget about Xander Bogaerts (I did…). These guys know how to produce and losing Juan Soto has an effect, but will it really if EVERY SINGLE ONE of these players locks in?
Do you think there is a chance of that happening Ryan? I do. Here’s some evidence. Last year was Ha-Seong Kim’s prime. He’s the only reason the Padres even had the record they had. Imagine if Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, and Kim all had their best season. They can definitely overtake the Diamondbacks and at least start racing with the Dodgers for #1 in the NL West. The Padres won’t get it (unless the impossible happens), but they can certainly threaten the Dodgers.
Ryan:
The Padres were huge spenders again last offseason, giving Xander Bogaerts $280 million in hopes that he would be the final piece of an elite core that included Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, and Manny Machado. San Diego came into the season among the World Series favorites, with the second-best forecast behind the Braves.
The Padres finished the season with an 82-80 record, but were under .500 for most of the season before winning 20 of their last 27 games.
San Diego faced a challenging situation this offseason, especially when it came to their rotation. Snell, Lugo, and Hader all hit free agency. In a move to reduce costs, the team decided not to exercise its club option on Michael Wacha. It should be noted that Juan Soto has been traded to the Yankees.
The Padres have a lot of talent, but it seems like the team is going through a transitional phase. At just 25 years old, Tatis is currently in his prime and would make an excellent cornerstone for any team. While San Diego would like to compete in the NL West, they face tough competition from the Dodgers, who are World Series favorites, as well as the rising young team of the Diamondbacks.
At the moment, this team appears to be the third strongest in the division and there is a chance it could drop to fourth place depending on the performance of the Giants. A positive note is that there are only a few teams that can be unquestionably deemed superior to San Diego. While the Padres may have a slight advantage in some areas, they still boast three prominent offensive players and an intriguing rotation featuring King, Vasquez, and Brito.
Without a doubt, the lineup remains strong with three outstanding hitters, and Seong-Kim adds to the formidable lineup. However, both Machado and Tatis have faced challenges with injuries in recent years.
I think this team has the potential to be one of the top wild card teams in the NL, with an expected win total of around 90 games. The addition of Go and Matsui will enhance the bullpen, and we are well aware of the capabilities of their top lineup.
Hey Smayan. What do you think about the Giants?
Smayan:
The Giants did not make billion-dollar offseason moves. No. But, they made big acquisitions. This list includes Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, etc. The only problem with this is, that they didn’t target what they really needed… Which was pitching, and that can’t be fixed by only adding one good starter in Blake Snell.
This is the Giants projected Opening Day Pitching Rotation:
Blake Snell
Logan Webb
Kyle Harrison
Jordan Hicks
Alex Cobb
Robbie Ray*
* Could be removed
What the heck is this? You need to have at least three good starters to consider yourself a good team! Blake Snell is an amazing one. Logan Webb is okay. Where’s the rest? Plus, if you noticed, the only person who’s below 26 is Kyle Harrison! He’s 22. There’s literally no future for this pitching rotation.
Adding Matt Chapman was not the best move. Obviously, like I just told you, they could’ve spent the money on some good pitching instead of adding this guy, but you know what? This is a good move. Not the best (like Ohtani), but not the worst (like Anthony Rendon). He definitely improves the left side of the infield (from home plate). We all know that J.D. Davis is a good player, but can he be the best? Can he be better than the Matt Chapman? No way!
The Giants could’ve been an amazing team this year if they had made moves that actually impact them. This did not happen.
Ryan. What d’ya think about the Rockies? They’re building an elite core in Ezequiel Tovar, Nolan Jones, etc. I really feel like the Rockies are rebuilding and not just throwing away games (looking at you Athletics). But, their rebuilding process is very… secret.
Ryan:
It's fair to say at this point that the Rockies are in the running for the most poorly run franchise in all of baseball. Last season, they shattered the franchise record with 103 losses, in which the previous was 98 losses in 2012.
There doesn't appear to be a ton of hope in the near future either. Fangraphs projection have the Rockies finishing with baseball's worst record in 2024. Fangraphs projects them at 63-99, while Baseball Prospectus has them at 57-105. MLB.com has the Rockies 21st of 30 teams in its farm system rankings, too.
Its not all doom and gloom here though folks. Denver is a great city, and Coors Field is one of the better places to watch a baseball game. So there's that at least.
So instead of being a glass half empty type of person, let's point out players to look out for in the Rockies’ 2024 campaign.
Nolan Jones saw regular playing time last year at the big-league level for the first time. He was 25. He hit .297/.389/.542 with 22 doubles, four triples, 20 homers, 62 RBI, 60 runs, 20 steals and 106 games.
Ezequiel Tovar played in 153 games last season at age 21. He showed exceptional defensive ability while hitting .253 with 37 doubles, four triples, 15 homers and 11 steals. There's a lot to love about this player.
Chase Dollander is the first pitcher we've mentioned here, so that's always exciting. He was selected ninth overall in the draft last July. He's a sturdy right-hander who was in the conversation for top overall pick last year. He was one of college baseball's best pitchers in 2022.
Jordan Beck, is a 22-year-old corner outfielder with prodigious power. He was the 38th overall pick in the 2022 draft. Between High-A and Double-A last season, he hit .271/.364/.503 with 34 doubles, 25 homers and 20 steals in 126 games.
These players listed above are both young and have the possibilities of being dynamic, although Beck and Dollander may or may not be called up this year.
To sum it all up, the Rockies need a ton of growth from a wide array of areas that could give them “hope” of contending in 2025. It's just not happening in 2024. Did you know that since the beginning of the expansion era in 1961, the Rockies have the third-worst record in baseball, and have never won their division? Yeah, look for that trend to continue.
Smayan:
Hmmm. I see what you mean. Alright, let’s get to the final predictions.
Dodgers: 108-54
Padres: 90-72
Diamondbacks: 85-77
Giants: 78-84
Rockies: 63-99
Alright, maybe I ranked the Padres a bit too high, but I feel like they got it this year. Don’t like my picks, Ryan, tell me yours.
Ryan:
I do think that you have the Padres ranked a little too high here, I believe that they will have an “average at-best year”.
Dodgers: 100-62
Diamondbacks: 85-77
Giants: 79-83
Padres: 78-84
Rockies: 62-100
The Dodgers as we all know are the class of this division, and the Rockies will be the worst in a “growth” type of a year. The middle of the NL West will be in a race for a Wild Card, I see the Diamondbacks being one of those teams with how well rounded of a team they are.
POLLS:
CONCLUSION:
And that’s the end of this one. Thank you to Ryan J. Van Dever for coming on with me. Would always love to have you back here. Like my predictions? Like Ryan’s predictions? Make sure to like this post and comment down below. Don’t like my predictions? Don’t like Ryan’s predictions? Make sure to like this post and comment your furiousness down below.
If you liked this collab, then there’s even more to come this week. Check your email tomorrow or Wednesday to check out the next collab.
Smayan. Signing off.
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